Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0B 0x0b6a…0816 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$112 (+22%) realized +$110 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$129
crypto 23% +$27
sports 16% −$25
world 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.8% -39.2% 22% 11% -22.9%
≤30d 9 -32.8% -39.2% 22% 11% -22.9%
≤90d 17 +68.2% +52.2% 24% 18% -12.6%
all 21 +36.1% +23.2% 19% 14% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.2% 14% -23.8%
10% +11.4% 14% -31.1%
15% +0.6% 14% -37.8%
20% -9.2% 14% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late +146% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$9 · ×8.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)21 / 31
History coverage164d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $36 +$6 (+18%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 41¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 +$247 +8233%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 20 $19 +$10 +54%
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 1h
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $15 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $31 2d
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 2d
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 2d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 2d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $29 2d
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 64¢ $51 2d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $2 37d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 63d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $2 63d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $2 63d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.55 · official $181.56 (match) · 50 history records