Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b6d…4eb0 sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%83W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$9
crypto 6% +$11
other 1% +$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +76.4% +59.6% 64% 64% +18.6%
≤30d 14 +54.0% +39.3% 57% 57% -1.5%
≤90d 102 -11.8% -20.2% 55% 38% -16.1%
all 140 -2.8% -12.1% 59% 45% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 45% -9.4%
10% -20.5% 35% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 26% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 20% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses83 / 57
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)140 / 146
History coverage105d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$25 +223%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$10 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$9 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 +$15 +114%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $16 +$19 +115%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $12 +$4 +30%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $27 −$27 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $35 +$2 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $5 +$2 +45%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $8 −$8 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $6 −$6 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $20 +$11 +55%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $2 +$2 +80%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $2 $0 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $6 +$2 +34%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $13 +$22 +166%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $27 +$4 +14%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $40 +$9 +23%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 13 $10 +$13 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $6 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 8d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 38¢ $16 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 42¢ $6 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.76 · official $16.76 (match) · 354 history records