Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b6e…ee5f weather 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (291 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day291.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$47
weather 44% +$19
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (291 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -3.8% -12.9% 43% 29% -15.2%
≤30d 56 -3.8% -12.9% 43% 29% -15.2%
≤90d 56 -3.8% -12.9% 43% 29% -15.2%
all 56 -3.8% -12.9% 43% 29% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover291.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 29% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 20% -23.3%
15% -28.9% 14% -30.7%
20% -35.9% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions24
Markets (closed)56 / 80
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day291.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $39 $46 +$7 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? No 85¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? No 85¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? No 81¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 15? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? No 82¢ 87¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 20¢ 29¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$9 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $83 −$32 -38%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$11 -7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $60 $0 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$8 +16%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $6 43m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 47m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.01 · official $159.82 (match) · 495 history records