Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0b72…dc2e crypto 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,434 (-17%) realized −$3,428 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate48%264W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day135.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$363
weather 14% −$499
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -77.1% -79.3% 12% 11% -61.1%
≤30d 545 -22.1% -29.5% 48% 25% -15.7%
≤90d 545 -22.1% -29.5% 48% 25% -15.7%
all 545 -22.1% -29.5% 48% 25% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 25% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 9% -23.8%
15% -42.4% 7% -31.1%
20% -48.1% 5% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$3,428
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses264 / 281
Open positions13
Markets (closed)545 / 485
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day135.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$10 -130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$5 -2601%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$3 -1351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$4 -1775%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.57 · official $7.57 (match) · 3500 history records