trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 28 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 43% | 39% | +19.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 39% | +19.9% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 39% | +8.5% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 39% | -2.0% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 39% | -11.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $400 | $400 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $230 | $230 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $190 | $190 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $190 | $0 | -0% |
| Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $310 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 21 | $320 | −$1 | -0% |
| Capitals vs. Penguins | Nov 06 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Rangers | Oct 14 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Tigers vs. Red Sox | Oct 07 | $17 | +$14 | +85% |
| Astros vs. Athletics | Sep 26 | $8 | +$7 | +89% |
| Pirates vs. Reds | Sep 25 | $5 | +$8 | +144% |
| Orioles vs. White Sox | Sep 15 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Commanders vs. Packers | Sep 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Giants vs. Rockies | Sep 11 | $5 | +$4 | +79% |
| Rays vs. Guardians | Aug 28 | $18 | +$16 | +90% |
| Falcons vs. Cowboys | Aug 26 | $13 | +$9 | +72% |
| Pirates vs. Brewers | Aug 13 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Marlins vs. Guardians | Aug 13 | $14 | +$11 | +75% |
| Braves vs. Reds | Aug 05 | $6 | +$4 | +70% |
| Twins vs. Tigers | Aug 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? | May 08 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 09 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Apr 07 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Feb 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Leicester City wins the Premier League? | Feb 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Pistons | Feb 10 | $205 | +$299 | +146% |
| Kings vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 07 | $109 | +$101 | +92% |
| Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Feb 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 06 | $109 | +$101 | +92% |
| Mavericks vs. Hawks | Nov 26 | $43 | −$43 | -100% |