Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0B 0x0b72…9624 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$472 (+21%) realized +$472 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$5
sports 27% +$476
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 28 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 39% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 39% +19.9%
10% -20.2% 39% +8.5%
15% -27.9% 39% -2.0%
20% -34.9% 39% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$6 · ×7.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.59 per $1 lost it wins $5.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized+$472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage573d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $230 $230 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $190 $190 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $310 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $320 −$1 -0%
Capitals vs. Penguins Nov 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Oilers vs. Rangers Oct 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Tigers vs. Red Sox Oct 07 $17 +$14 +85%
Astros vs. Athletics Sep 26 $8 +$7 +89%
Pirates vs. Reds Sep 25 $5 +$8 +144%
Orioles vs. White Sox Sep 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Commanders vs. Packers Sep 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Giants vs. Rockies Sep 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Rays vs. Guardians Aug 28 $18 +$16 +90%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 26 $13 +$9 +72%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 13 $14 +$11 +75%
Braves vs. Reds Aug 05 $6 +$4 +70%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Feb 10 $205 +$299 +146%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $109 +$101 +92%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 06 $109 +$101 +92%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Nov 26 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $310 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $320 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $320 24h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $310 24h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 24h
Capitals vs. Penguins BUY Capitals 50¢ $24 227d
Oilers vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 44¢ $8 250d
Tigers vs. Red Sox BUY Red Sox 54¢ $17 268d
Astros vs. Athletics BUY Astros 53¢ $8 269d
Pirates vs. Reds BUY Pirates 41¢ $5 271d
Orioles vs. White Sox BUY White Sox 43¢ $3 279d
Commanders vs. Packers BUY Commanders 38¢ $1 283d
Giants vs. Rockies BUY Giants 56¢ $5 293d
Rays vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 53¢ $18 299d
Falcons vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 58¢ $13 303d
Pirates vs. Brewers BUY Pirates 35¢ $13 312d
Marlins vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 57¢ $14 313d
Twins vs. Tigers BUY Tigers 57¢ $5 320d
Braves vs. Reds BUY Reds 59¢ $6 324d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 97¢ $5 409d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 409d
Liverpool wins the Premier League? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 438d
Liverpool wins the Premier League? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 438d
Arsenal wins the Premier League? SELL No 97¢ $5 440d
Arsenal wins the Premier League? BUY No 97¢ $5 440d
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? BUY Yes $1 461d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.59 · official $819.59 (match) · 53 history records