Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0b72…acd7 sports 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+5%) realized +$66 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%39W / 54L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days+$16
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$151
other 26% −$41
crypto 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 48% -7.8%
≤30d 93 -16.6% -24.5% 42% 35% -4.6%
≤90d 93 -16.6% -24.5% 42% 35% -4.6%
all 93 -16.6% -24.5% 42% 35% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 35% -4.6%
10% -31.7% 30% -13.7%
15% -38.3% 23% -22.1%
20% -44.4% 13% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses39 / 54
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 60¢ 100¢ $45 $75 +$30 (+66%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group C RUSTEC 86¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Athletics 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Athletics 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Golden State Valkyries 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Milwaukee Brewers 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Christopher OConnell 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Mia Ristic 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +249%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$34 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $126 −$41 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $20 −$10 -48%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $96 +$109 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $3 $0 -16%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +31%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $3 +$1 +42%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $3 +$1 +36%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $8 +$4 +48%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Libema Open (Doubles): Maleckova/Skoch vs Chan/Sonmez Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 +$2 +34%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $20 −$3 -15%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $93 +$32 +34%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $26 8m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 10m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 20¢ $9 11m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $20 35m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $25 39m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $5 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 46h
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 SELL No 47¢ $5 46h
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 SELL No 47¢ $5 46h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $10 46h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 49¢ $9 46h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.14 · official $99.14 (match) · 240 history records