Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b79…dc53 crypto 281 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-2%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%183W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$167
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$247
crypto 25% −$59
politics 6% +$15
world 5% +$53
sports 4% −$26
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -11.3% -19.7% 52% 52% -20.1%
≤30d 32 +4.4% -5.6% 62% 62% -14.0%
≤90d 56 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 55% -17.1%
all 281 -8.5% -17.3% 65% 55% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 55% -16.5%
10% -25.2% 33% -24.5%
15% -32.4% 19% -31.8%
20% -39.0% 11% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses183 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)281 / 281
History coverage330d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 281 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $284 −$47 -16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $211 −$184 -87%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 +$6 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $379 +$58 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$17 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +44%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2 +$4 +197%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $158 +$47 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$2 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$26 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$7 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 +$12 +42%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? May 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? Apr 06 $39 +$8 +20%
Will Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial electi Apr 05 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $5 +$4 +85%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mar 31 $5 +$2 +33%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $5 +$1 +19%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $15 −$10 -67%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 58¢ $238 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $264 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $15 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $290 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $205 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 678 history records