Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0b7a…86cf
other · 70 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$38,837 +39%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38,505 · open +$329
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$6,933
Realized+$38,505
Unrealized+$329
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses25 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions25
Markets (closed)45 / 70
Avg bet$1,413
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 25 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1,837 $1,879 +$42 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 74¢ 84¢ $1,110 $1,268 +$158 (+14%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $868 $902 +$34 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 94¢ 98¢ $752 $784 +$32 (+4%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Up 70¢ 74¢ $676 $705 +$29 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $460 $486 +$26 (+6%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $295 $297 +$2 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 51¢ 52¢ $221 $221 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $95 $91 −$4 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $79 $90 +$12 (+15%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $23 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 56¢ 99¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+76%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 14 $800 +$200 +25%
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? Apr 25 $10,173 +$1,142 +11%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $9,118 +$2,261 +25%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $82 +$18 +22%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,372 +$78 +6%
GPT-5.5 released by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $30 −$18 -62%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $116 −$116 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 16 $3,628 +$2,641 +73%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $12 +$8 +64%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $36 +$14 +39%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7? Apr 08 $345 +$58 +17%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Apr 06 $42 −$6 -13%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 02 $11 +$6 +56%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 02 $28,476 +$7,160 +25%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 28 $11 +$1 +9%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 21? Mar 22 $5,113 +$191 +4%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 16 $26,354 +$21,173 +80%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Mar 12 $7 −$7 -100%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 12 $28 −$28 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 12 $1,030 +$406 +39%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 12 $67 −$62 -92%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 08 $54 +$85 +157%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 08 $233 −$75 -32%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $7 +$3 +41%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $3 +$2 +82%
GPT-5.4 released by March 16? Mar 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? Mar 05 $8 +$2 +23%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 01 $4,422 +$3,620 +82%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$2 +40%
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $138 −$23 -17%
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026? Feb 22 $138 −$9 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% +$38,193
world 5% +$448
tech 4% +$416
finance 1% +$26
sports 0% −$253
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 71¢ $42 5m
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 72¢ $144 5m
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 73¢ $146 13m
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 51¢ $51 53m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 6¢ $13 54m
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 51¢ $8 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 51¢ $58 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 22¢ $46 2h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 22¢ $46 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $32 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 52¢ $83 8h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 52¢ $10 10h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 52¢ $8 11h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 52¢ $3 12h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 68¢ $204 15h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 70¢ $4 15h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 70¢ $99 15h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 70¢ $37 15h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 59¢ $15 17h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 59¢ $12 17h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 59¢ $12 17h
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? BUY Yes 94¢ $26 18h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 59¢ $18 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -57.8% -61.8% 33% 33% -54.2%
≤30d 4 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤90d 26 -13.4% -21.7% 62% 50% +26.9%
all 45 -13.9% -22.1% 56% 44% +28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 44% +28.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 38% +16.0%
15% -36.3% 27% +4.8%
20% -42.6% 18% -5.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,932.88 · official $6,932.89 (match) · 1505 history records