Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b7a…8304 crypto 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,545 (+4%) realized +$2,342 · open +$203
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%195W / 93L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,940now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$189
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$1,210
other 3% +$3
politics 2% −$4
sports 1% +$65
world 1% −$69
finance 1% +$28
tech 1% +$71
economics 0% −$15
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.7% +4.7% 60% 40% -6.6%
≤30d 13 +5.0% -5.0% 77% 31% -5.4%
≤90d 48 +15.8% +4.8% 88% 56% +5.6%
all 288 +6.1% -4.0% 68% 42% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 42% -7.7%
10% -13.2% 28% -16.6%
15% -21.6% 21% -24.6%
20% -29.3% 13% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$101 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$1,940
Realized+$2,342
Unrealized+$203
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses195 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)288 / 293
History coverage249d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $549 $572 +$23 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 85¢ $517 $569 +$52 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 71¢ 96¢ $284 $384 +$99 (+35%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 75¢ $264 $300 +$36 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $122 $115 −$7 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 +$21 +100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $60 −$7 -12%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $107 +$92 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 10 $365 +$14 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $650 +$48 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $171 +$66 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,226 +$16 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $89 +$32 +36%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $302 +$6 +2%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? May 27 $470 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $620 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 06 $9 +$4 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 06 $186 +$168 +90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? May 03 $204 +$94 +46%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 01 $148 +$48 +33%
Shymkent 2: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Sora Fukuda Apr 28 $177 +$9 +5%
Will Solana reach $100 April 20-26? Apr 28 $503 +$32 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 27 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Solana reach $100 April 13-19? Apr 19 $456 +$43 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 13-19? Apr 18 $477 +$135 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 14 $265 +$73 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $360 +$22 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 14 $169 +$32 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 14 $119 +$97 +81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $23 +$6 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $544 +$389 +72%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $10 +$6 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $726 +$170 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12? Apr 12 $555 +$131 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 April 6-12? Apr 11 $304 −$299 -98%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 10 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $448 +$70 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $328 +$72 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $378 +$277 +73%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $581 +$119 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $228 +$72 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $279 +$21 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $519 +$81 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $222 +$21 +9%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $511 +$3 +1%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Mar 31 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 23-29? Mar 30 $384 +$185 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22? Mar 25 $380 +$42 +11%
Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Mar 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Mar 16 $4 −$2 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $85 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $103 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $4 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $38 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $0 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $13 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $0 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $5 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $0 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $564 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $252 45h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $264 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $256 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $112 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $100 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $265 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $395 3d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen SELL Greet Minnen $2 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen SELL Greet Minnen 64¢ $48 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen SELL Greet Minnen 64¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen SELL Greet Minnen 64¢ $0 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $200 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 59¢ $60 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 53¢ $107 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $378 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,940.05 · official $1,940.09 (match) · 1539 history records