Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b7b…6141 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$3
other 21% $0
tech 5% +$1
weather 2% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.9% -13.0% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 21 -1.8% -11.2% 38% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 21 -1.8% -11.2% 38% 5% -10.0%
all 36 -1.8% -11.1% 39% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage397d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $2 $0 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $52 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $41 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $44 −$2 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $7 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $50 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 13 $21 +$1 +3%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 27 $1 $0 -8%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
2025 May hottest on record? May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will ‘KONOSUBA -God’s Blessing on This Wonderful World! 3’ win Crunchy May 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 22 $21 $0 +1%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $2 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $2 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $10 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $39 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $38 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.92 · official $46.20 (match) · 115 history records