Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b7c…548b crypto 45 markets active 5h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$30
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$4
sports 28% −$25
world 17% −$36
other 15% −$6
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 27% -11.6%
≤30d 37 -6.8% -15.7% 49% 24% -13.4%
≤90d 37 -6.8% -15.7% 49% 24% -13.4%
all 37 -6.8% -15.7% 49% 24% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 24% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 22% -21.7%
15% -31.1% 16% -29.2%
20% -37.9% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)37 / 45
History coverage15d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 96¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$2 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$27 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$18 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$17 -13%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$5 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$34 -84%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $210 +$45 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $115 +$86 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$14 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$67 +134%
Huergo/Radisic vs. Gorgodze/Karamoko: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $75 −$13 -17%
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $150 −$22 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -57%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 3? Jun 03 $20 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $5 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 25h
Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $5 26h
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $5 26h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 27h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 27h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? BUY No 98¢ $5 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.91 · official $39.91 (match) · 375 history records