Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b80…dc0b crypto 146 markets active 5d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%65W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$38
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +5.4% -4.6% 63% 53% -8.6%
≤30d 146 -7.1% -16.0% 45% 32% -10.3%
≤90d 146 -7.1% -16.0% 45% 32% -10.3%
all 146 -7.1% -16.0% 45% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 32% -10.3%
10% -24.0% 25% -18.9%
15% -31.4% 20% -26.7%
20% -38.1% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses65 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$14 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$17 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records