Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0B 0x0b81…72b3 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$34 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$54
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$43
world 8% −$50
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +24.4% +12.5% 75% 75% +8.8%
≤30d 19 +7.9% -2.4% 63% 63% -13.1%
≤90d 19 +7.9% -2.4% 63% 63% -13.1%
all 19 +7.9% -2.4% 63% 63% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 63% -13.1%
10% -11.7% 63% -21.4%
15% -20.3% 63% -29.0%
20% -28.1% 42% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$39 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage12d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 66¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+68%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$23 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$18 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $70 +$66 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 −$66 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $70 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $67 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.93 · official $72.93 (match) · 34 history records