Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b83…fa77 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$9
other 37% −$2
sports 4% −$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.0% -14.9% 20% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 14 -3.4% -12.6% 21% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 14 -3.4% -12.6% 21% 0% -11.3%
all 29 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -10.9%
10% -19.4% 0% -19.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage461d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $7 −$2 -24%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $40 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $83 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $68 −$3 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $49 −$5 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 14 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $2 $0 -20%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $13 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $13 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $6 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $7 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $18 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $25 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $9 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $1 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $14 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $18 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $40 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $40 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records