Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b83…44ed crypto 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-5%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate79%71W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$93
other 9% +$44
economics 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +36.2% +23.2% 100% 100% +19.2%
≤30d 5 +36.2% +23.2% 100% 100% +19.2%
≤90d 5 +36.2% +23.2% 100% 100% +19.2%
all 90 -4.2% -13.3% 79% 31% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 31% -13.6%
10% -21.6% 18% -21.8%
15% -29.2% 12% -29.4%
20% -36.1% 8% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses71 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage332d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$4 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $35 +$18 +52%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Oct 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Oct 15 $27 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 6PM ET Oct 15 $15 +$12 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 7AM ET Oct 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Oct 14 $14 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Oct 14 $13 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Oct 14 $9 +$4 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Oct 14 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Oct 12 $8 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET Oct 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Oct 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET Oct 12 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Oct 11 $13 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 2PM ET Oct 11 $12 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Oct 11 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Oct 11 $7 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 9AM ET Oct 11 $12 −$8 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Oct 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Oct 10 $7 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 1PM ET Oct 10 $7 $0 +5%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Oct 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Oct 10 $24 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Oct 10 $22 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Oct 10 $20 +$2 +10%
XRP Up or Down - October 10, 10AM ET Oct 10 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Oct 10 $19 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 9AM ET Oct 10 $17 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Oct 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Oct 10 $8 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Oct 10 $8 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 12AM ET Oct 10 $7 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Oct 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Oct 10 $4 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Oct 10 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Oct 10 $24 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Oct 10 $22 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Oct 10 $22 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Oct 10 $21 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Oct 10 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Oct 10 $21 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Oct 10 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Oct 10 $18 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Oct 10 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 45¢ $5 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 255d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $27 255d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 6PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $23 255d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 6PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 255d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 255d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 255d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 256d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 256d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 256d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 256d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 257d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $7 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 258d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 259d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $4.99 · 242 history records