Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0B 0x0b85…a92b crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$28 (-6%) realized −$27 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR31%break-even

Win rate54%7W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day42.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +31%

net ROI/market (all)-32.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-25.7%	-32.8%	54%	31%	-26.6%
≤30d	13	-25.7%	-32.8%	54%	31%	-26.6%
≤90d	13	-25.7%	-32.8%	54%	31%	-26.6%
all	13	-25.7%	-32.8%	54%	31%	-26.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover42.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-32.8%	31%	-26.6%
10% ← realistic here	-39.2%	23%	-33.6%
15%	-45.1%	23%	-40.0%
20%	-50.5%	15%	-45.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

43% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -41% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.4 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized−$27

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses7 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day42.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	Over	70¢	69¢	$102	$101	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 25	$43	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$12	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 25	$45	+$3	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET	Jun 25	$18	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 25	$48	−$37	-77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 25	$16	−$15	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 25	$18	+$11	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 25	$62	−$27	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 25	$47	+$8	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 25	$15	−$14	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 25	$17	−$17	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 25	$16	+$13	+77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 25	$9	−$9	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$103	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Down	30¢	$11	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$13	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$2	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$2	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	SELL Up	75¢	$2	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	SELL Up	75¢	$5	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	SELL Up	75¢	$30	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$21	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$0	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Down	55¢	$33	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	SELL Up	49¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$18	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET	SELL Down	20¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	SELL Up	25¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	SELL Up	25¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$18	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.07 · official $101.09 (match) · 42 history records