Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b91…ae77 other 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,273 (+13%) realized +$26,895 · open −$622
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%98W / 176L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$682per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$7,964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,881
7 days+$4,232
14 days+$4,232
30 days+$4,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$7,337
other 34% +$751
politics 17% +$10,650
sports 6% −$72
finance 4% −$434
tech 1% +$269
crypto 1% −$146
culture 1% +$616
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +70.2% +53.9% 27% 27% +27.5%
≤30d 15 +70.2% +53.9% 27% 27% +27.5%
≤90d 126 -12.9% -21.2% 32% 26% -4.5%
all 274 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 30% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 30% -0.2%
10% -23.4% 26% -9.8%
15% ← realistic here -30.8% 21% -18.5%
20% -37.6% 18% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$680) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$583 vs −$213 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$7,964
Realized+$26,895
Unrealized−$622
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses98 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions39
Markets (closed)274 / 296
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$682
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $1,318 $1,941 +$623 (+47%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,130 $1,285 +$155 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 37¢ 39¢ $991 $1,039 +$48 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 63¢ 62¢ $924 $913 −$11 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1,016 $781 −$235 (-23%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $303 $635 +$332 (+110%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $1,088 $615 −$473 (-43%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $277 $265 −$13 (-5%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $241 $127 −$115 (-47%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $113 $119 +$7 (+6%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $300 $103 −$197 (-66%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $48 $38 −$9 (-19%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $65 $32 −$33 (-51%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $34 $21 −$13 (-38%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $48 $14 −$34 (-70%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-49%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 33¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5,655 +$4,894 +86%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $407 −$272 -67%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,627 −$45 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$190 +212%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casey Putsch win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary electi Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Jun 14 $461 −$203 -44%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Jun 14 $401 −$401 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $389 −$389 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 +$1,564 +1521%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $74 +$126 +170%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? May 17 $680 −$680 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $438 −$291 -66%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $128 −$128 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $594 −$489 -82%
Will Hao-Tong Li finish as leader after Round 1? May 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? May 17 $536 −$402 -75%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $469 −$469 -100%
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi May 17 $446 −$446 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi May 17 $372 −$372 -100%
Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi May 17 $311 −$289 -93%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament May 17 $487 −$487 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 RBC Heritage? May 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $176 −$43 -24%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $307 −$307 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 17 $8,121 +$3,662 +45%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $551 −$551 -100%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 17 $103 −$101 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 17 $69 +$34 +49%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Apr 29 $52 −$52 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $917 −$417 -45%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? Apr 20 $23 +$32 +144%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 11, 2026? Apr 20 $49 +$49 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $924 27m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $103 27m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $81 32m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $399 32m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 37m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 39m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 41m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $207 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $201 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $241 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $204 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $467 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $228 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $48 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $624 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 1h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $63 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 2h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $160 2h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 7h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,963.98 · official $7,963.99 (match) · 3500 history records