Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b94…a6af other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$1
other 46% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 25% -7.2%
≤30d 13 +3.9% -6.0% 92% 15% -8.9%
≤90d 14 +3.7% -6.2% 93% 14% -9.0%
all 14 +3.7% -6.2% 93% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 14% -9.0%
10% -15.2% 0% -17.7%
15% -23.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -30.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage32d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 96¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $87 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$2 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 25? May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $103 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 94¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $87 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $17 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $15 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $87 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $14 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $14 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $12 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $11 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $11 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $87 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 94¢ $87 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $97 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $17 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $57 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $97 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $96 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $100 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 25? SELL No 100¢ $100 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.55 · official $103.55 (match) · 37 history records