Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0b94…805f crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+2%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate73%45W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$66
other 19% +$23
sports 3% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +6.2% -3.9% 74% 41% -10.1%
≤30d 62 +5.2% -4.8% 73% 40% -8.8%
≤90d 62 +5.2% -4.8% 73% 40% -8.8%
all 62 +5.2% -4.8% 73% 40% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 40% -8.8%
10% -13.9% 21% -17.5%
15% -22.2% 15% -25.5%
20% -29.9% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses45 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage22d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $75 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $82 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $154 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $157 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $101 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $76 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $106 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $127 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $126 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $111 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$25 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$29 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.54 · official $19.54 (match) · 283 history records