Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0B 0x0b9e…154a weather 469 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$840 (+3%) realized +$1,038 · open −$198
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%252W / 200L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$416
7 days+$354
14 days+$419
30 days+$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% +$660
politics 27% +$70
weather 22% −$180
other 15% +$153
tech 2% +$73
economics 2% −$27
sports 2% −$60
crypto 2% −$13
culture 1% −$49
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.1% -0.4% 71% 57% +1.7%
≤30d 21 +12.1% +1.5% 76% 57% +2.5%
≤90d 64 +2.5% -7.2% 56% 47% -0.6%
all 452 -7.2% -16.1% 56% 45% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 45% -6.1%
10% -24.1% 33% -15.1%
15% -31.4% 21% -23.3%
20% -38.2% 14% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$1,391
Realized+$1,038
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses252 / 200
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)452 / 469
History coverage246d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $400 $394 −$6 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $210 $242 +$32 (+15%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 63¢ 88¢ $120 $169 +$49 (+41%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $174 $162 −$12 (-7%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 29¢ 92¢ $20 $63 +$43 (+216%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 80¢ 50¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 70¢ 96¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $21 $16 −$5 (-23%)
Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 19¢ $119 $10 −$108 (-91%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 26¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-71%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 18¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 43¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 86¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 66¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $410 +$59 +14%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $280 +$129 +46%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $152 −$22 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $310 +$92 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $384 +$95 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $204 +$51 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $300 +$66 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$32 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$11 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $100 +$43 +43%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $100 +$54 +54%
Will 1+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $5 +$5 +100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $301 +$67 +22%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 23 $100 +$25 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 23 $923 +$129 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 14? Apr 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 23 $122 −$2 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 21 $10 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 21 $100 −$66 -66%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 18 $100 +$22 +22%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 08 $792 +$101 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 27? Apr 08 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 27? Apr 08 $2 +$8 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 25? Apr 08 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22? Apr 08 $4 +$16 +471%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 24? Apr 08 $6 +$14 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 25? Apr 08 $10 −$7 -70%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 06 $100 −$6 -6%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 28 $200 −$137 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 26? Mar 26 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 26? Mar 26 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 26? Mar 26 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 27? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 25? Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 24? Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $469 6h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $409 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $31 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $93 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $32 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $328 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $383 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $255 30h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $144 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $210 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $100 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $54 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $66 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,390.87 · official $1,390.67 (match) · 1437 history records