Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0b9f…d7e8 sports 347 markets active 8h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%170W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1
other 8% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 50% -11.0%
≤30d 217 -1.9% -11.3% 51% 51% -6.5%
≤90d 340 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 48% -9.5%
all 340 -4.6% -13.7% 50% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 48% -9.5%
10% -22.0% 44% -18.1%
15% -29.5% 38% -26.0%
20% -36.4% 28% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses170 / 170
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)340 / 347
History coverage48d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) INOX Division 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 73¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 41¢ 37¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Under 58¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Set Handicap: Ratti (-1.5) vs Hemery (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $3 +$2 +47%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Nagal (-1.5) vs Brunclik (+1.5) Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Brockmann vs. Parks: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $3 +$2 +47%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 7h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 55¢ $3 18h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 64¢ $3 22h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 37¢ $2 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 53¢ $3 25h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 63¢ $3 26h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 37¢ $2 27h
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Yastremska 50¢ $4 28h
Set 2 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 51¢ $5 28h
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska BUY Yastremska 51¢ $5 28h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $5 28h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 70¢ $5 33h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 36h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 37h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $3 38h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 80¢ $4 38h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $2 39h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ $4 39h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 40h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 40h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 40h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5) BUY New York Mets 43¢ $2 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 73¢ $4 40h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $3 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $5 41h
Set Handicap: Ratti (-1.5) vs Hemery (+1.5) BUY Hemery 51¢ $5 45h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY RisingRage 47¢ $2 46h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 80¢ $4 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.24 · official $90.00 · 587 history records