Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0ba6…0b84 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+8%) realized +$87 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$20
sports 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 43% +8.1%
≤30d 7 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 43% +8.1%
≤90d 7 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 43% +8.1%
all 7 -21.0% -28.5% 43% 43% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 43% +8.1%
10% -35.4% 43% -2.3%
15% -41.6% 43% -11.7%
20% -47.3% 29% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 20¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 88¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 −$5 -40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +81%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$41 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $121 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $141 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.75 · official $80.38 (match) · 21 history records