Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0ba9…5a0e other 12 markets active 7h ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$21 (+30%) realized +$18 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$21
sports 12% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +101.6% +82.4% 100% 100% +69.4%
≤30d 3 +101.6% +82.4% 100% 100% +69.4%
≤90d 5 +21.0% +9.4% 60% 60% +54.4%
all 8 +26.8% +14.7% 75% 62% +40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 62% +40.4%
10% +3.8% 62% +26.9%
15% -6.3% 50% +14.7%
20% -15.5% 38% +3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.3 per $1 lost it wins $10.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage104d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Thunder vs. Bulls Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $5 $0 +7%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $1 +$1 +72%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 04 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 1¢ $1 74d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks SELL Thunder 100¢ $2 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 58¢ $1 103d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 104d
Pelicans vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 100¢ $7 104d
Pelicans vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 76¢ $5 104d
Thunder vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 13¢ $1 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.20 · official $38.20 (match) · 24 history records