Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0baa…fad5 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%19W / 232L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 25% −$23
politics 8% −$6
culture 5% −$6
economics 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses19 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage139d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $338 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $773 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $619 +$2 +0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $138 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $508 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $159 −$3 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $855 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $136 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $467 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $566 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $439 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 2h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 4h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 5h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 6h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 15h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 16h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $60 17h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $60 18h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 23h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 24h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 26h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 33h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 35h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 43h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 45h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 45h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 47h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.53 · official $59.53 (match) · 1432 history records