Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0baa…e36c other 17 markets active 7h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-9%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$6
world 12% −$16
sports 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 42% -25.6%
≤30d 17 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 41% -21.7%
≤90d 17 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 41% -21.7%
all 17 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 41% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 41% -21.7%
10% -29.5% 35% -29.2%
15% -36.3% 24% -36.1%
20% -42.5% 6% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +25%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$16 -66%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -74%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -81%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -51%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $14 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $14 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $28 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $12 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records