Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:09:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0bb7…2ec3 crypto 668 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$105,160 (+131%) realized +$105,388 · open −$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate67%442W / 218L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$6,062
other 27% −$7,147
sports 2% −$863
world 0% +$52
politics 0% −$6
finance 0% +$7
tech 0% +$2
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$12
culture 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 35% -32.5%
≤30d 414 -2.5% -11.8% 74% 36% -24.5%
≤90d 660 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 40% -11.4%
all 660 -2.0% -11.3% 67% 40% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 40% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 30% -19.9%
15% -27.6% 21% -27.6%
20% -34.7% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$130 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized+$105,388
Unrealized−$228
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses442 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions7
Markets (closed)660 / 668
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$120
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $474 $237 −$237 (-50%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 67¢ 92¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 64¢ 47¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,995 −$4,995 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $482 −$255 -53%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,030 −$167 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,502 +$3 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,618 −$334 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,402 −$8 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,703 −$492 -18%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,900 −$377 -13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,858 −$114 -4%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,785 −$109 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $145 +$165 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $320 +$286 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $461 +$296 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$74 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $329 −$329 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$203 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $249 +$311 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $135 +$140 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $125 +$227 +181%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $42 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.87 · official $337.87 (match) · 3500 history records