Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0bb8…a9a4 other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 86L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$11
politics 30% −$7
sports 6% +$55
world 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 75 -3.5% -12.7% 5% 4% -9.7%
all 98 +4.0% -5.9% 12% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 9% -9.3%
10% -14.9% 8% -18.0%
15% -23.1% 7% -25.9%
20% -30.7% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×9.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 86
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage116d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $184 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $204 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $397 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $412 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $400 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $191 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $352 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $399 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $329 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $177 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $177 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $212 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $440 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $337 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $161 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $582 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $162 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 17h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 17h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 21h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 15d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 25d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $199 39d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $199 46d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $214 46d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $214 46d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $184 47d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $184 47d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 47d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $204 47d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $169 48d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $169 48d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 49d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 49d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 49d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $204 50d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $188 50d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $188 50d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $197 50d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $197 50d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $192 51d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $192 51d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $200 51d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $200 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records