Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0bb8…46d2 crypto 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$179 (-1%) realized −$172 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate63%195W / 113L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$219
14 days−$700
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,456
crypto 24% −$972
other 10% +$1,639
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 48% -12.0%
≤30d 83 -10.7% -19.2% 49% 49% -9.8%
≤90d 110 -11.5% -19.9% 49% 48% -12.6%
all 308 -14.2% -22.4% 63% 26% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 26% -12.0%
10% -29.8% 21% -20.4%
15% -36.6% 16% -28.1%
20% -42.8% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$87 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses195 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions5
Markets (closed)308 / 315
History coverage119d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$53 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $508 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $600 +$208 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $376 +$108 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $173 +$61 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $148 +$60 +41%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $408 +$718 +176%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $252 +$65 +26%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $613 −$600 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $58 −$57 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $162 −$160 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$30 +196%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $625 +$971 +155%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,014 −$471 -46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $23 +$24 +103%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $129 +$111 +86%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$129 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $147 +$174 +119%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$166 +55%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $514 −$10 -2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $504 +$148 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$68 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$77 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $355 −$350 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $48 −$33 -69%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $522.86 · official $742.91 · 1375 history records