Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0bba…2c84 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$239 (+13%) realized +$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$252
14 days+$252
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$189
other 40% +$29
economics 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
≤30d 2 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
≤90d 2 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
all 5 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 40% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% +1.1%
10% -17.6% 0% -8.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -17.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$37 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.94 per $1 lost it wins $6.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage243d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,006 +$189 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $506 +$64 +13%
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? Nov 04 $120 −$37 -31%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Nov 01 $118 +$2 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $117 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $1,195 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1,006 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 69¢ $570 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 2d
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? SELL Yes 52¢ $83 236d
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 75¢ $120 238d
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? SELL No 100¢ $120 239d
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? BUY No 98¢ $118 242d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 242d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $117 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records