Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0bbb…f7d1 other 168 markets active 15h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,701 (+1%) realized +$2,701 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%27W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,585per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$40
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$2,042
politics 33% −$110
sports 16% +$744
economics 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% −$2
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +3.6% -6.3% 9% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 98 +2.6% -7.2% 7% 5% -8.3%
all 166 +4.6% -5.3% 16% 12% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 12% -8.6%
10% -14.4% 12% -17.3%
15% -22.7% 11% -25.3%
20% -30.2% 10% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,137) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$12 · ×13.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized+$2,701
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses27 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,585
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $247 $248 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $213 $212 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $3,881 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $3,067 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $424 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,602 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,842 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,793 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,605 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8,835 −$10 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,850 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,478 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,547 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,513 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,558 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,404 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $75 +$67 +90%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,542 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $51 +$71 +140%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 03 $1,351 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $1,082 +$5 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $419 −$1 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $1,004 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 25 $78 −$78 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $68 +$63 +93%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,867 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,668 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 20 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 20 $1,226 +$1,839 +150%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 10 $3,298 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,659 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $213 14h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $748 35h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $749 37h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $505 42h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $506 44h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $440 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $441 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $614 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $615 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $623 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $624 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $737 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $738 3d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $581 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $582 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $579 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $580 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $423 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $424 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $808 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $809 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,148 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,149 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $961 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $962 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $909 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.59 · official $459.59 (match) · 575 history records