Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bbf…3809 sports 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$201 (-4%) realized −$186 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%91W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$11
14 days−$51
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$135
world 17% −$13
other 5% +$7
politics 5% −$42
finance 1% −$4
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 37% -11.9%
≤30d 143 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 31% -13.2%
≤90d 199 -9.0% -17.7% 41% 30% -21.7%
all 228 -7.0% -15.9% 40% 27% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 27% -12.7%
10% -23.9% 23% -21.0%
15% -31.3% 17% -28.7%
20% -38.0% 14% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses91 / 137
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions53
Markets (closed)228 / 282
History coverage536d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 75¢ 90¢ $49 $59 +$10 (+20%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 60¢ $46 $40 −$6 (-13%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 92¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+131%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 83¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 76¢ 83¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+40%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 78¢ 91¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 71¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 78¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 86¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 66¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 42¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +74%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +43%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$5 +474%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +173%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$2 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $64 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$4 -27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 1¢ $0 7m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 1¢ $0 19m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 2¢ $0 41m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $1 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $4 2h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $4 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 32¢ $6 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 31¢ $3 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $2 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 74¢ $4 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $2 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 58¢ $3 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 47¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.78 · official $294.71 (match) · 1157 history records