Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0B 0x0bc0…6cad other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% $0
crypto 18% $0
politics 12% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 17 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 29 $76 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $76 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $77 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Mar 28 $78 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 10 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $77 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $76 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $76 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $76 21d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $76 23d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $76 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $76 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $76 31d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 33d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 33d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $76 36d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $76 37d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $76 41d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $77 42d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $78 67d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $78 68d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $78 70d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $78 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $78 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $78 83d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 93d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $78 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $78 96d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $78 98d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $78 99d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $78 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $78 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records