Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0B 0x0bc1…edec politics 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$2
culture 4% $0
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.4% -14.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -5.4% -14.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -5.4% -14.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 8 -3.9% -13.0% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage242d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Dec 26 $19 $0 +2%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 12h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 14h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 15h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 15h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 18h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 20h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 21h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 25h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 28h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 30h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 34h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 178d
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? SELL No 100¢ $19 178d
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? BUY No 98¢ $19 216d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $49 241d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $49 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.51 · official $219.51 (match) · 22 history records