Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0bc2…7639 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$203 (-6%) realized −$42 · open −$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$2,059now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$264
14 days+$264
30 days+$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$38
sports 16% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.5% +18.1% 71% 71% +22.5%
≤30d 7 +30.5% +18.1% 71% 71% +22.5%
≤90d 7 +30.5% +18.1% 71% 71% +22.5%
all 7 +30.5% +18.1% 71% 71% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.1% 71% +22.5%
10% +6.8% 71% +10.8%
15% -3.6% 71% +0.1%
20% -13.0% 43% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$109 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,059
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage9d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,110 $1,175 +$65 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,002 $780 −$221 (-22%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $108 $104 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 20 $102 +$87 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 +$39 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$226 +111%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $85 +$115 +134%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$15 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $184 −$180 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,058.96 · official $2,258.95 · 32 history records