trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +7.0% | -3.2% | 50% | 50% | -34.0% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 82% | 18% | -20.6% |
| all | 15 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 87% | 13% | -20.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.1% | 13% | -20.0% |
| 10% | -16.9% | 13% | -27.6% |
| 15% | -24.9% | 13% | -34.6% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 13% | -41.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 61¢ | 62¢ | $404 | $408 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $281 | −$277 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $143 | +$163 | +114% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 19 | $156 | +$157 | +101% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | May 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6? | May 18 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition | May 18 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | May 18 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | May 18 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | May 18 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | May 18 | $19 | $0 | +1% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Apr 17 | $146 | −$144 | -99% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 03 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 | Feb 03 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Tesla reach $645 in January? | Feb 03 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? | Jan 09 | $12 | $0 | +0% |