Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0bc8…adf7 finance 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$902 (-2%) realized −$934 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate68%76W / 36L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$339
14 days−$781
30 days−$1,504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 81% −$1,039
sports 12% −$422
weather 6% +$46
politics 0% +$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.0% -13.2% 77% 23% -3.7%
≤30d 102 -6.9% -15.8% 69% 28% -13.1%
≤90d 112 -7.4% -16.3% 68% 29% -12.3%
all 112 -7.4% -16.3% 68% 29% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 29% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 9% -20.7%
15% -31.6% 5% -28.3%
20% -38.3% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$116 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$934
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses76 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage34d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $285 $310 +$25 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $297 $300 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? Jun 17 $149 +$16 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$5 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Jun 17 $279 +$25 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $141 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $189 +$10 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $79 +$31 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $159 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $41 −$27 -64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $422 +$37 +9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $160 +$9 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $425 +$110 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $203 −$33 -16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $222 +$37 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $150 +$18 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $369 +$49 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$3 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $142 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $105 −$45 -43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 11 $313 +$22 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $431 +$21 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $978 +$71 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $249 +$43 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $267 +$22 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $234 +$23 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $185 +$2 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $471 +$29 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $240 +$48 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $80 +$20 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $154 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $166 +$24 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $105 +$9 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $534 +$64 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $283 −$69 -24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $97 −$77 -79%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $546 −$71 -13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $48 −$36 -76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $52 +$2 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $139 −$29 -21%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $66 +$5 +8%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $148 +$50 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL Yes 78¢ $3 57m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $74 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $194 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL Yes 89¢ $134 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL Yes 69¢ $20 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $187 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $125 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 42¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $52 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 32¢ $7 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL No 30¢ $6 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL No 54¢ $97 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 40¢ $5 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL No 30¢ $11 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $16 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $39 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $39 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? SELL No 78¢ $39 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL No 30¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $3 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $119 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.74 · official $669.74 (match) · 1135 history records