Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bcb…5c30 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$220 (-17%) realized −$184 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$268
sports 38% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.5% -5.4% 22% 22% -20.3%
≤30d 9 +4.5% -5.4% 22% 22% -20.3%
≤90d 9 +4.5% -5.4% 22% 22% -20.3%
all 9 +4.5% -5.4% 22% 22% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 22% -20.3%
10% -14.5% 22% -28.0%
15% -22.8% 22% -34.9%
20% -30.3% 11% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$61 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$184
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 60¢ $200 $164 −$36 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $266 +$102 +38%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$2 -5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $153 −$5 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$9 -21%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$192 +375%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $252 −$112 -44%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $202 36m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $369 37m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $266 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $49 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $147 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $32 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $153 3h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $244 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $140 7h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.38 · official $164.38 (match) · 18 history records