Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bce…2379 crypto 753 markets active 2d ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$423 (-9%) realized −$423 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%456W / 297L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$108
14 days−$203
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$198
sports 38% −$280
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 48% -17.0%
≤30d 382 -19.0% -26.7% 58% 56% -19.7%
≤90d 753 -14.6% -22.8% 61% 58% -18.6%
all 753 -14.6% -22.8% 61% 58% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 58% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 41% -26.4%
15% -36.9% 10% -33.5%
20% -43.1% 4% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses456 / 297
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)753 / 753
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 753 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +374%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $58 +$10 +18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $37 −$37 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 +$131 +442%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 +$32 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$23 +58%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $20 +$18 +91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $28 +$32 +114%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $62 +$47 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $76 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $118 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $61 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $46 +$30 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $49 47h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $50 47h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 37¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 31¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $32 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $72 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $70 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $63 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 62¢ $40 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY aimclub 22¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2191 history records