Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bcf…9f3f weather 77 markets active 1d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$151 (-32%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% −$43
world 21% −$69
crypto 20% −$25
tech 5% −$14
other 3% −$2
sports 3% −$2
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -24.3% -31.5% 38% 25% -61.1%
≤30d 77 -31.3% -37.8% 39% 23% -41.2%
≤90d 77 -31.3% -37.8% 39% 23% -41.2%
all 77 -31.3% -37.8% 39% 23% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 23% -41.2%
10% -43.8% 16% -46.8%
15% -49.2% 14% -51.9%
20% -54.2% 12% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $98 −$68 -70%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $9 −$8 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $33 −$18 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 +$4 +353%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 01 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? May 30 $4 +$9 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $30 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $30 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 57¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $27 3d
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 67¢ $10 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $10 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 50¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records