Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bd2…41bc crypto 1194 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$146 (-0%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate62%1020W / 619L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9,415
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 480 -92.8% -93.5% 6% 0% -83.2%
≤30d 738 -59.1% -63.0% 35% 3% -42.5%
≤90d 1639 -27.6% -34.5% 62% 4% -24.6%
all 1639 -27.6% -34.5% 62% 4% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.5% 4% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.8% 0% -31.8%
15% -46.5% 0% -38.4%
20% -51.8% 0% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$100 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses1020 / 619
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1639 / 1194
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1639 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$65 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$32 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $231 −$231 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $208 −$419 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$37 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$12 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$92 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $178 −$357 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$35 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$32 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$91 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$37 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$93 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$73 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$35 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$42 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$89 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$19 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$36 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $65 −$130 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$32 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$10 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$44 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$36 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$91 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $142 −$285 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$72 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$91 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$14 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$91 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $93 −$186 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$93 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$37 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$32 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$74 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$13 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $65 −$130 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$52 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$92 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$29 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $223 −$223 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $226 −$453 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$20 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$92 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$36 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $223 −$448 -201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $143 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $141 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $142 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $76 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $140 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $143 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $138 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $137 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $134 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $137 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $139 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $138 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $106 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $31 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $136 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $137 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $143 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $128 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $143 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $140 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $137 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records