Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bd4…f2fe weather 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$367 (+5%) realized −$45 · open +$412
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%54W / 62L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day131.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$743
crypto 0% −$2
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 29% -4.7%
≤30d 116 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 29% -4.7%
≤90d 116 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 29% -4.7%
all 116 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 29% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 29% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 22% -13.8%
15% -21.6% 19% -22.2%
20% -29.3% 15% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$16 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$412
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses54 / 62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage7d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day131.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Yes 26¢ 88¢ $177 $584 +$407 (+230%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $159 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 +$105 +1464%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 22 $190 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $231 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $7 −$4 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $401 +$34 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $224 +$80 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$10 +155%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $147 +$48 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $191 +$29 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $18 −$14 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $173 −$121 -70%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$12 -61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $23 +$10 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $114 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 20 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $269 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $6 −$5 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $107 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$19 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $17 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$65 +164%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $60 +$48 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $91 +$32 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 −$27 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $80 +$58 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 +$4 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 −$22 -74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $41 −$38 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $56 +$23 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $550 −$55 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $332 +$47 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $210 +$23 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $39 −$23 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $130 −$94 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$4 -52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 −$22 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 −$22 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 86¢ $118 5m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 19m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 89¢ $85 36m
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 91¢ $91 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 86¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 86¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 85¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 74¢ $206 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 93¢ $55 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.10 · official $610.10 (match) · 929 history records