Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bdc…3296 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$668 (-12%) realized −$344 · open −$324
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$541
14 days+$576
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$1,494
sports 19% +$624
politics 5% +$40
world 4% −$5
crypto 1% +$30
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +33.4% +20.7% 92% 58% +35.3%
≤30d 23 +20.2% +8.8% 65% 48% +12.2%
≤90d 26 +15.1% +4.2% 62% 46% -20.9%
all 28 +14.5% +3.6% 61% 46% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 46% -18.9%
10% -6.3% 29% -26.6%
15% -15.3% 29% -33.7%
20% -23.6% 18% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$170 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized−$344
Unrealized−$324
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage602d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $827 $503 −$324 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$7 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $121 +$10 +8%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$3 +14%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $118 +$54 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $125 +$254 +204%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $356 +$270 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $133 −$131 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 +$61 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$55 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $66 −$4 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 +$11 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $773 +$607 +78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $560 −$557 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $205 −$5 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Apr 12 $1,316 −$1,142 -87%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 01 $300 +$40 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $78 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 63¢ $43 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $53 7h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $20 7h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $20 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $67 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.08 · official $545.87 · 197 history records