Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bdd…ac21 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$2
other 23% −$3
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +2.2% -7.5% 22% 11% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +2.2% -7.5% 22% 11% -8.8%
all 33 -3.0% -12.2% 48% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage466d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'LEveL' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 14 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 07 $11 −$3 -24%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $16 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $36 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $36 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $15 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $13 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $16 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $16 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 14¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $38 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $38 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.30 · official $36.30 (match) · 88 history records