Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0be0…60af crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$199 (-29%) realized −$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +19.3% +8.0% 38% 38% -36.2%
≤30d 13 +19.3% +8.0% 38% 38% -36.2%
≤90d 13 +19.3% +8.0% 38% 38% -36.2%
all 13 +19.3% +8.0% 38% 38% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.0% 38% -36.2%
10% ← realistic here -2.4% 38% -42.3%
15% -11.8% 38% -47.9%
20% -20.5% 38% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +133% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$37 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $165 −$55 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $202 −$24 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$32 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$23 +436%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$11 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records