Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0be6…330f
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$5,739 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,299 · open −$439
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$311
Realized−$5,299
Unrealized−$439
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage176d
Avg bet$1,715
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$552
7 days−$552
14 days−$552
30 days−$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $750 $311 −$439 (-59%)
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15,343 $0 −$15,343 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? No 0¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,369 −$587 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $162 +$35 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $100 −$33 -33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $311 +$25 +8%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 17 $80 +$18 +22%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $100 −$67 -67%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $500 +$108 +22%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $15,343 −$15,343 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 16 $1,072 +$3,113 +290%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $2,011 +$2,044 +102%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 21 $1,140 +$5,456 +479%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 64% −$15,343
other 16% +$4,657
tech 11% −$552
sports 5% +$5,456
world 3% +$32
finance 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 9¢ $213 34m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 12¢ $311 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 10¢ $363 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,030 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 18¢ $197 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 34¢ $1,206 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 14¢ $162 24h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,029 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL Yes 15¢ $67 73d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 73d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 17¢ $108 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 16¢ $100 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 12¢ $107 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 12¢ $100 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 11¢ $11 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 12¢ $34 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 12¢ $87 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 10¢ $100 74d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? BUY No 0¢ $9 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL No 42¢ $98 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY No 35¢ $80 88d
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $750 88d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $33 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $608 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 90d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $500 90d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 4¢ $8,122 111d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi SELL Yes 66¢ $4,063 116d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi SELL Yes 98¢ $4,055 116d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi BUY Yes 18¢ $1,000 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% -29.3%
≤30d 2 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% -29.3%
≤90d 6 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 33% -26.0%
all 13 +37.4% +24.3% 54% 46% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.3% 46% -30.1%
10% +12.4% 23% -36.8%
15% +1.6% 23% -42.9%
20% -8.4% 23% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.61 · official $310.61 (match) · 40 history records