Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0be7…20a8 other 36 markets active 8h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+16%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$183
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$135
sports 22% −$8
crypto 5% +$36
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.2% -0.3% 57% 52% +12.6%
≤30d 27 +10.5% -0.1% 56% 52% +6.8%
≤90d 27 +10.5% -0.1% 56% 52% +6.8%
all 27 +10.5% -0.1% 56% 52% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 52% +6.8%
10% -9.6% 52% -3.5%
15% -18.4% 48% -12.8%
20% -26.4% 44% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 36
History coverage9d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 38¢ 40¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$40 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$21 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $88 −$4 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $26 +$1 +5%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Pavel Šulc: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Jan Kuchta: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$38 +123%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$19 +73%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$24 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$62 +226%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$39 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 8h
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $51 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $25 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 34¢ $4 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 25¢ $26 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $48 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 50¢ $83 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 35¢ $27 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $88 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $26 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 3d
Pavel Šulc: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Jan Kuchta: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Jan Kuchta: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $25 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $9 4d
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.30 · official $95.37 · 55 history records