Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0be8…8f87 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$222 (-16%) realized −$228 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$159
14 days−$159
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$235
sports 28% −$47
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 30% -23.9%
≤30d 33 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 30% -23.9%
≤90d 33 -15.6% -23.6% 36% 30% -23.9%
all 52 -18.6% -26.4% 35% 29% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 29% -30.3%
10% -33.4% 21% -36.9%
15% -39.9% 19% -43.0%
20% -45.8% 17% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage162d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$12 -62%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $142 −$65 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$33 +41%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$18 -60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$12 -81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$10 -32%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$26 +51%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$31 -88%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$64 -64%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $61 −$9 -14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$27 +218%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 -1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $9 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 25 $6 +$7 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 25 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 23 $7 −$3 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $5 +$9 +183%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 22 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 22 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 22 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 12¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $61 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 35¢ $53 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $81 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 17h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 31h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 31h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $52 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $37 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.82 · official $180.82 (match) · 127 history records