Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bea…8b12 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$2
politics 18% +$1
other 13% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 33% 11% -9.9%
≤30d 16 -2.5% -11.8% 31% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 16 -2.5% -11.8% 31% 6% -10.1%
all 31 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $13 −$2 -19%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $7 −$2 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 16 $14 $0 -1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on March 28? Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 28 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $24 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $9 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $22 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $4 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $24 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $27 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $33 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records