Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bf1…ec7b world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$3
sports 31% −$2
other 20% +$6
politics 16% −$10
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 41 -0.9% -10.4% 34% 0% -9.6%
all 47 -0.5% -10.0% 34% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage104d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $159 $160 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $311 +$7 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $138 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $446 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $138 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $153 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $154 −$2 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $594 −$13 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $154 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $257 −$3 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $195 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $282 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $140 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $252 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $612 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $140 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $232 −$9 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $96 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $148 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $225 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $158 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $51 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $163 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $148 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $181 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $517 +$2 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $996 +$5 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $12 −$1 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $3,096 −$3 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $48 $0 +0%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $1,154 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $531 −$2 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 12 $1,156 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $159 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $159 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $159 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $101 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $25 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $114 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $54 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $54 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $82 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $49 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $41 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $97 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $153 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $153 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $138 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $138 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $153 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $153 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $152 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $154 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $45 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $95 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $140 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.88 · official $159.88 (match) · 219 history records