Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0bf2…fa13 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$150 (-19%) realized −$148 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$120
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$151
other 30% −$1
tech 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +67.4% +51.5% 100% 100% +51.5%
≤90d 10 -12.6% -20.9% 80% 10% -35.5%
all 14 -8.9% -17.6% 86% 7% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 7% -32.7%
10% -25.5% 7% -39.2%
15% -32.7% 7% -45.0%
20% -39.3% 7% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$135 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage167d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $208 $206 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $177 +$120 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $115 −$114 -99%
Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? May 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? May 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? May 13 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 3? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $158 −$156 -99%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $272 in January? Feb 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 09 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.00 · official $206.00 (match) · 28 history records